Friday, January 25, 2008

That’s (Alu)minimum value!

But optimism seeps in when considered that while cultural synergy has been one of the primary reasons why many mergers have bombed, the Rio Tinto & Alcan Canadian combination seems much more ‘culturally fi t’ than the American Alcoa’s combination with Canadian Alcan, thus giving the merger a much better chance of survival. Also the fact that the target Alcan controls 20% of global aluminium market & that the merger with Rio Tinto is expected to boost the combination’s pro-forma gearing (debt to capital ratio) in the region of 60%, the deal appears refreshing as a Rio Tinto spokeswoman revealed exclusively to B&E, “We intend to retain our ‘A’ rating & will reduce gearing, partly through cash flows, currently running at more than $1 billion a month & rest through divestments of non-core business.”

However, go by Credit Suisse’s 2007 review which states that ‘Aluminum has been the worst-performing base metal in the last five years.’ And London Metal Exchange’s prediction of a dangerous drop in global aluminum consumption from 6.57% during 2005-06 to just 5.34% by 2012, & you’re bound to question Rio Tinto’s ‘expensive’ thoughts & its logic behind overvaluing Alcan, just as we do.

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Source: IIPM Editorial, 2008

An IIPM and Management Guru Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri's Initiative